Hosted by the Institute for China & World Studies and the School of Political Science & International Relations (SPSIR) of Tongji University, the Tongji Serial Lectures on Social Sciences No.32 was successfully held in the Lecture Hall on the 10th floor of Zhonghe Building on November 27, 2020. Researcher Xu Jin, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of the journal World Economics and Politics of the Institute of World Economics and Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, was invited to give a keynote speech entitled “The Time Dimension of Grand Strategy”. Tongji Distinguished Professor Men Honghua, President of the Institute for China & World Studies, Dean of SPSIR, and Director of the Tongji Center for Research on International Cyberspace Governance, moderated the lecture which was attended by more than 60 Tongji teachers and students.

In this lecture, researcher Xu first raised the question of how to judge the strategic goal is right or wrong based on the comparison between the historical German-UK strategic competition and today’s China-US strategic competition. Xu believed that the strategic goal must be coupled with time, and the goal must be time-bound, or it will be difficult to operate. And a rational strategic goal requires appropriate evaluation of interests, resources and capabilities, as well as measurement of external pressures and interference factors (i.e. “knowing yourself” and “knowing your adversary”), while time is a bridge between knowing yourself and knowing your adversary. Time can help decision-makers to determine a reasonable strategic rhythm and develop corresponding strategies, and affect the extent to which resources can be mobilized and external pressure can be handled. Based on this, he proposed a calculation formula: knowing yourself * knowing your adversary * time = goal, and used this as an evidence for the strategic facts after the founding of New China.

Then, researcher Xu discussed how time is coupled with goals. He believed that strategic goals can be divided into rigid goals and flexible goals. The former must be achieved within a certain time limit and are easy to measure, while the latter are obscure and not easy to measure. Based on the elements of time limit, strategic goals can be divided into: (1) rigid goals with time limit; (2) rigid goals without time limit; (3) flexible goals with time limit; (4) flexible goals without time limit. On this basis, Xu divided the distortion of time dimension into two categories, i.e. extending the time schedule and shortening the time schedule. He pointed out that extending the time schedule is a forced choice, which has a limited impact on the achievement of the goal; while shortening the time schedule is the opposite. There are three reasons for shortening: first, external threats are exaggerated due to the misunderstanding of the system and power structure; second, driven by the idea of seizing the window of opportunity, a country may take a radical rather than cautious approach; third, emergencies trigger sudden changes in the situation.

Next, he explained the relevant strategic theories based on two historical cases. The first case was the German naval development strategy in the early stage of World War I. He believed that it was a reasonable goal for the German Navy to catch up with Britain, but the time schedule was unreasonable. It was originally envisaged to basically catch up with Britain by around 1920. However, due to increased security pressure from outside, the goal turned from steady to radical, with its difficulty increased and its pace accelerated. This was mainly due to Germany’s exaggeration of external threats and eagerness to seize the window of opportunity. The second case is the Soviet offensive strategy in the 1970s. He said that the Soviet Union set a long-term flexible goal aimed at world hegemony, but the situation in Afghanistan suddenly changed. The Soviet Union saw a short-term window of opportunity and sent troops directly, while heightening its strategic goals and shortening the time dimension. As a result, the national strength of the Soviet Union was greatly consumed. Based on this, Xu believed that time is a key element that affects the strategic rhythm. A reasonable schedule can enable the strategy to be executed in a proper rhythm; while an unreasonable schedule will necessarily lead to failure arising out of being radical or slack. So, a country must make a reasonable strategic schedule and maintain strategic focus at critical moments.

In this frontier lecture, researcher Xu Jin also had ideological and realistic interactions with the audience. With his professional attainments, he gave thought-provoking answers to such questions as “Since rigid goals and flexible goals have implied the time limit, does the ‘rigid goal without time limit’ contradict the above?”, “The emphasis of time limit is on the speech of time, then does acceleration lead to failure?”, and “When emphasizing the changes in leaders’ subjective cognition, can we add objective elements like historical background and time change?”, which received warm applause.

In closing, Dean Men thanked researcher Xu Jin for his wonderful speech, believing that the lecture was profound in scientific principle and academic insights. He pointed out that a strategic goal needs to be adjusted according to actual conditions, and a combination of long-term and short-term considerations can undoubtedly provide a more objective and clear judgment for strategic planning. In view of this, Dean Men believed that this lecture is a real theoretical feast, and looked forward to his future visits to Tongji for further exchanges.